Severe T-Storms With Damaging Winds Possible In Utica and Rome

A cold front moving through central New York tomorrow, 8/25/20, could bring severe thunderstorms and damaging winds late morning through mid-afternoon.

High pressure on Wednesday will briefly bring cooler and quiet weather, but things will turn more active later in the week as temperatures trend warmer again.

An embedded well-marked wave will zip through an increasing west-northwest flow towards dawn, and could actually bring a decaying yet possibly gusty line of convection into parts of Central NY first thing in the morning. At the surface, this will also be marked as a pre-frontal trough, which will greatly complicate the forecast for Tuesday...The Storm Prediction Center has placed our whole area into a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday, due to the potential of damaging winds as indicated by strong unidirectional shear of 40-50 knots at 6 km. [NWS]

 

Extended NWS Forecast:

Today: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. West wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4pm, then a slight chance of thunderstorms between 4pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. West wind 8 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 30%.