If you're hoping for a warm and wet winter (as opposed to a cold and snowy winter), you may just get your wish, that according to NOAA's Winter Weather Outlook.

The outlook, which was released Thursday (10-19) says the most likely scenario is a warmer than normal weather pattern across Upstate New York for the December through February period.  However, the chances of this occurring break down as follows:

  • A 33%-50% chance of warmer than normal
  • A 33% chance of normal
  • A 17%-33% chance of below normal

Although, this winter is expected to be warmer than normal, the Climate Prediction Center says it's not likely this winter will be as warm as the past couple winters have been. The center also says there's the potential for the development of a La Nina system in the eastern Pacific Ocean. If it does develop, it would be weak and not last very long. In a typical La Nina winter, we see less snow than average in the mid-Atlantic states and here in the Northeast.

NOAA estimates  there's a 55%-65% chance of La Nina development.

With this news, does that mean we won't have a repeat of Stella?  Guess we'll just have to wait and see!


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