As New York school districts head into budget season, there’s a word of caution from Dr. Rick Timbs, Director of the Statewide School Finance Consortium.

The numbers you’re looking at right now might not be the numbers you end up with.

In the February newsletter published by the Central New York School Boards Association, Timbs reminds districts that the Executive run from the Governor is not the same as the February run. There are differences, and some of them matter.

He says districts should pay close attention to demographics and student weighting within Foundation Aid, along with expense-driven aids. Many of the changes reflect updated October enrollment data. There can also be smaller adjustments in textbook, library, and software aid categories. It may look minor at first glance. It rarely is.

Then there’s the Save-Harmless issue. According to Timbs, roughly two-thirds of New York school districts now fall into that category. That number has climbed in recent years, even with tweaks to the Foundation Aid formula.

Timbs argues the formula itself still needs serious work. The Adjusted Foundation Amount remains underfunded, he writes, and weighting for students with disabilities, economically disadvantaged students, English language learners, and homeless or foster care students needs attention. He points back to recommendations in the Rockefeller study as a roadmap lawmakers should revisit.

Meanwhile, costs are climbing. Health insurance, pensions, labor, capital projects. Revenue growth is not keeping pace. Timbs says that reality makes mandates like the zero-emission bus requirement even more financially challenging for districts already feeling squeezed.

And then there’s Pre-K.

Under the Governor’s proposal, by 2028 to 2029 districts would be required to provide a full-day prekindergarten slot to any four-year-old whose parents request one. Aid would be tied to either $10,000 per pupil or the district’s Foundation Aid per-pupil amount.

Nice concept. Big lift.

Timbs raises practical questions. How do districts budget for the unknown? Do they have classroom space? Transportation? Staffing? Kindergarten itself is not mandated statewide, yet this proposal would create a universal four-year-old requirement.

For many districts, he suggests, the logistics alone could be overwhelming.

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