New York Could Be in for a Milder Winter, But There’s One Big Catch
If last week's temperature made you wonder what kind of winter New York will have this year, we have an early clue from the Pacific Ocean.
Meteorologists are watching a developing Super El Niño, and while it could mean a milder winter for much of New York, it doesn't necessarily mean we'll be shoveling less snow.
What Is a Super El Niño?
El Niño happens when ocean waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean become much warmer than normal. Those warmer waters can change weather patterns around the world.
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A Super El Niño is an especially strong version of the weather pattern, and forecasters say ocean temperatures are quickly approaching that level.
What It Could Mean for New York This Winter
The biggest takeaway? Expect warmer-than-average temperatures overall across New York.
Instead of frequent blasts of Arctic air, milder Pacific air is more likely to move across the northern United States. That usually means fewer long stretches of bitter cold.
But here's the catch...
A Milder Winter Doesn't Mean No Snow
Some of the Northeast's biggest snowstorms have happened during strong El Niño winters.
That's because El Niño also sends more moisture toward the Northeast. Most of the time, that means more rain. But if temperatures drop just enough when a storm arrives, that extra moisture can turn into a major snowstorm.
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In other words, even if winter is warmer overall, New York could still see one or two blockbuster snow events.
What About Summer?
The same weather pattern is expected to influence the rest of this summer, too.
A Super El Niño typically brings slightly cooler temperatures overall and can reduce activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. That doesn't mean there won't be hot days or hurricanes... it simply shifts the odds toward fewer extreme events.
A Possible Mild Winter for New York
Right now, the early outlook points toward a milder, wetter winter across New York, with more rain than snow overall.
Still, it only takes one well-timed blast of cold air to turn a moisture-packed storm into a memorable snowstorm. So while this winter may not be as harsh as average, it's probably too early to sell the snowblower.
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Gallery Credit: Kylie Moore